ROGER KHOURY | From Market Forecasting Academy

· Podcast Episodes
The best surfers know how to wait for the right wave Roger Khoury from Market Forces Academy

My guest today has seen grown, mature, successful individuals open their first brokerage account and turn into 16 year olds who just got their driver's licence, their parents got them a brand new Lamborghini, and there's a bottle of whiskey in the passenger seat. The Stock Market will do that to some people.

Roger is the Founder and CEO of Market Forecasting Academy, a training and mentorship program for market participants looking for low risk, consistent, market-beating performance. He is most known for developing an innovative, industry-first methodology that eliminates the uncertainty, inconsistency and large drawdowns traditionally experienced in the financial markets.

"I was at the beach, and I noticed two surfers out of 17 that were kind of off to the left side. The other 15 kept taking like wave after wave, and they're crashing and burning a lot. But the two guys off to the left didn't seem to take many waves at all. And I thought, well, those are probably the amateurs. Then I realized that every time those guys take a wave, they always have a really nice, smooth, long ride. They're not crashing and burning. They're the professionals. You could see that they had a way where they're filtering the waves and looking for waves that were, giving them a, a good ride. Right? So I thought, well, wait a second, that's gotta be a principle in life."

Roger Khoury is an expert in the field of Market Forecasting, with over two decades of experience.

In 2010, he developed an innovative probability-based form of price forecasting, called Market Vulnerability Analysis™ (or MVA™), to overcome an inherent flaw he had discovered that was unavoidably baked into every trading and investment strategy developed for the world's financial markets.

This inherent flaw is the root cause of large drawdowns and inconsistent performance results.

His proprietary form of analysis enables its user to uniquely reduce the downside risks in the market, without sacrificing the upside performance potential.

After successfully deploying his proprietary analysis and forecasting methodology (MVA™) to execute a strategy he also developed called Demand Imbalance Arbitrage™ to reach his own goals, people began to inquire about his accomplishments.

In 2011, Roger brought on partners, Bo Yoder and Dr. Jared Goldstine to help establish a training curriculum and mentoring program, in order to address those interests, which they initially offered through their firm RBJ Financial Group.

Based on the success of this venture and the insights gained from mentoring dozens of students, Roger was inspired to create an exclusive community, with a more formalized learning environment.

In 2019 Roger launched the Market Forecasting Academy to accomplish his vision for educating and mentoring active market participants on acquiring the skill of accurate and objective Financial Market Forecasting.

This website serves as an introductory information portal for those who are seeking to learn about this innovative proprietary methodology and about Roger and his exclusive community of clients, which he personally chooses during the evaluation process from the applications submitted through this portal.

Over 90% of his clients learn about him through word of mouth personal referrals from existing clients.


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Hi, and welcome back to Stocks for Beginners. I'm Phil Muscatello. The most difficult thing for people approaching markets is to achieve consistency. It can feel like the market is targeting you personally, as you get caught up in its gravitational forces. Joining me today is Roger Khoury. Hello, Roger.

Roger Khoury (43s):
How are you? Good to be here with you.

Phil (45s):
Roger Khoury is the founder and CEO of Market Forecasting Academy, a training and mentorship program for market participants, looking for low risk consistent market beating performances. So let's go back in time. How did you, and when did you start originally investing?

Roger Khoury (1m 1s):
Well, it was back in the 1990s, the mid nineties, when the whole trade for a living revolution kind of took off and started getting into the trading really from a short to medium term perspective. And I began to realize that what I was applying in the short to medium term could actually apply intraday. And I started really kind of building my skillset. Then I probably spent about 18 months of education and training and about nine months of practice before I really felt comfortable with where I could go in and start trading real capital.

Phil (1m 34s):
Did you have a finance background or you're a civilian before that?

Roger Khoury (1m 38s):
Oh, no. Total civilian. I was actually in, in business consulting at that time. In fact, how was, what was funding? My, all my trading education and the training and the, and the losses.

Phil (1m 48s):
And that was your float.

Roger Khoury (1m 50s):
That's right. You know, it's an interesting thing. There's a lot of good people, very well-meaning people in the industry that love to teach. I know teaching is something that's. Some people are just really enjoy. I found that I enjoy it, although I never intended to teach, as people would come to me and ask me, how is it to have all this free time? And I tell them what I do. And I was like, why would you go on a teacher as badly be fun? And it kind of turned into what it is today, but, but there's a lot of people who really kind of who figure something out and they want to teach. Well, what's interesting is a lot of people don't realize that there is something that I call an inherent flaw in the market. And that is, it took me 14 years to figure out that no matter what strategy or system or technology or indicator I ever bought, it's doomed to eventually begin to perform inconsistently poorly or not at all.

Roger Khoury (2m 40s):
Why? Because all of these approaches have one common theme and that is they're developed within a set of market conditions that at the time are what is working for somebody. Then they back test them for previous market conditions. And that's how they figure out, okay, I've got something that works and it's got some edge. Okay, wonderful. Let's say now most statistical edges are going to perform a round about 60% on the top side of as an average. Right? But when that edge starts to fail, because market conditions change just enough as they always do. They're always evolving. Then suddenly as the conditions changed, this is the reason why people, when they think they've found something, they have some success.

Roger Khoury (3m 20s):
And all of a sudden that success starts to become haphazard. It's no longer consistent. And then they're wondering what's going on? Why did this thing fail? Am I doing something wrong now? Yes. Sometimes it's not applying it correctly, but most of the time, if someone's following the rules, the system is really starting to kind of fail them in terms of giving him something consistent and reliable. Well, what do they do now? They're off looking for the next new thing what's working now, right? Version 2.0, and this is the nature of the beast for the entire industry, including the professionals. Well, after 14 years, when I realized even the professionals have to keep looking at the next new thing and starting and stopping, but now they don't have the same horror stories.

Roger Khoury (4m 4s):
Although you'll hear some of them here and there with big banks and big funds, but by and large, most of them don't have those because they're willing to hold onto a large downturn, the whole, the 10, 20 twenty-five percent downturn. Right. But for the average individual, that's not something that they really want to be able to have to stomach and go through,

Phil (4m 22s):
Especially if they don't understand why that's happening.

Roger Khoury (4m 25s):
Exactly. And oftentimes the timing you'll get people who will be looking to retire. And all of a sudden the market gives back 30 to 50%. Well, they can't make that up in a very short, you know, two years of gains, right. So I had to figure out, there's gotta be some way to overcome this inherent flaw. And it was a bunch of serendipitous events, but I had a pivot point in my life where believe it or not, I was about to punch my computer monitor. I was so upset and I thought, okay, I refrained. And I went to the beach to calm myself down. Cause that's one of the things that I do. I go, and I like to just watch the ocean and listen to the waves, calm myself down those a little spot. That's not very busy, but it's a popular surfing point.

Roger Khoury (5m 6s):
It's called silver strand beach and Ventura county, California. Well, I went there and I think, cause I was boiling over, I was looking at the surfers and I started counting that there was 17 surfers. And then all of a sudden it occurred to me about, I don't know, maybe half an hour into it. I noticed there's, there's two surfers out of the 17 that were kind of off to the left side. And the other 15 kept taking like wave after wave, you know, trying to surf the wave, but they're crashing and burning a lot. Sometimes they get good waves. Oftentimes they're crashing and burning, but the two guys off to the left didn't seem to take many waves at all. And I thought, well, those are probably the amateurs learning from the 15 that are, seem to be regular as well, about an hour, an hour and a half into it.

Roger Khoury (5m 48s):
A pattern clicked in my mind. I realized, you know what, every time those guys take away, they always have a really nice, smooth, long ride. They're not crashing and burning. They're the professionals. Right. And I was like trying to figure out. Then once I realized that what was going on, I realized the way they were situated and what they were doing and their mannerisms and the water was very different than the mannerisms of those that were kind of coupled together. Right. And the 15, well, it turns out you could see that they had some way where there are filtering out the waves that were not likely to give them a bad ride versus looking for waves that were, give them a, a good ride. Right? So I thought, well, wait a second, that's gotta be a principle in life.

Roger Khoury (6m 30s):
What if I went back to the market instead of looking for opportunities to make money, what would happen if I looked for opportunities that were not likely to lose money, everything changed with that perspective. And that began a series of interesting for tutus serendipitous moments that would just kind of come together. And I began literally reinventing the approach to the markets. I throw out literally everything I had done for 14 years, I had spent over 14 year period, maybe over $300,000 on education and training alone. Okay. I'm not even talking about losses that I learned from. So I literally threw everything out and took a very counterintuitive approach to the market.

Roger Khoury (7m 10s):
And I realized something, most people, including professionals will look at one, two, or maybe three factors to help them analyze the market. So primarily fundamental analysis and or technical analysis, any of their various forms that includes Fibonacci, GAM, things like that. Okay. Elliot wave. The problem is all of these are they're affected by many other factors. And it turns out there's actually eight major factors of supply and demand that are affecting price action. What causes prices to rise and fall. These are the demand factors. So the combined impact of all those major eight forces and their subsets is what's really driving price.

Roger Khoury (7m 52s):
And when you realize that, guess what happens? You all of a sudden realize price itself is a lagging indicator. And if you're using it technical analysis, what's, that's derived from price. That's another lagging indicator. Now you're twice behind right price is the most current. And you're deriving something from that that's lagging. Well then what is price lagging behind? It's lagging behind demand demand is what causes prices to go up and down. So if we can actually not forecast, but if we can identify where demand is in real time, the aggregate combined demand factors, guess what we can now forecast where prices going with a great deal of accuracy.

Phil (8m 37s):
Can we just step back just for a moment because I'm presuming we're talking about technical analysis, much of your process is to deal with technical analysis. And that's saying those lines and bars and candlesticks on a screen, is that correct?

Roger Khoury (8m 50s):
So not exactly

Phil (8m 52s):
Just before we get into that, because I just wanted to clarify this and also the concept of lagging indicator, because you hear this term, but we're talking to beginners here and they might not even know what we're talking about here. Just give me a little bit of an overview of the lines and bars on a chart and why they're not giving you an accurate picture of what's actually happening right now.

Roger Khoury (9m 15s):
So just to kind of deep dive a little bit on when we think about what is a lagging indicator in the market. So when we look at a price chart, you know, if you put up, if we want to look at the stock of apple as an example, right, you'd see the, you know, as price goes up, generally people will use something called a candlestick price chart. So it looked like little candlesticks. And so if it's green that represents it's the market's moving up. If it's red, it's moving down. Right? So we have the price that we're watching is it goes up and down. Now a lot of people that use technical analysis will use something like a moving average, right. Which is that you'll see a line that, that is measuring a number of price bars for the last, let's say, 50 price bars and taking the total.

Roger Khoury (9m 57s):
And it's kind of showing you where the average is right now. So it's really, it's deriving that information from price historically and giving you a visual indication of where it's at on a price chart right now. And that's great, but it's giving you kind of a look back historically, right? So it's lagging, it's behind, what's currently in real time in the market, right though, it looks like it's real time. It's showing you a snapshot of what happened. All right. So there's other indicators that people use and these indicators are little squiggly lines and things that will try to represent the rate of change, for instance, as oscillates up and down. So you see these waves and it shows you when, when the market seems to be, a lot of buyers are kind of buying and maybe it looks like it's exhausting and maybe overbought.

Roger Khoury (10m 41s):
So you expect the market to start to want to come back a little bit, pull back retrace, some of its steps, right. And vice versa. So these are all indications of what people can look at on a price chart that helps them understand is the market really exhausted in this direction? Has it moved so long that it needs to kind of take a rest and go sideways a little bit where it's not going to continue going higher, or maybe it needs to kind of come back. It went too high. In fact, if use a rubber band analogy, you look at a rubber band. As the rubber band gets stretched out, you know, it can only go so far for us to stretch, to get a snap back in right now, the market's not going to break and snap. And so just pretend this is our rubber band that does not break and snap.

Roger Khoury (11m 24s):
Well, that's what we're seeing in the market is at some point, what goes up must come down. What goes down eventually goes back up, right? But if we think about what causes prices to go up and down, it's always based on how much demand there is. If you want to sell your house, the more people that want that house, they'll start to bid up and go, I'll pay you 5,000 more. I'll pay you 10,000 more I'll you know, okay. But if no one wants your house and you want to sell it, wow, I'm not getting any offers. Well, a better offer for 10,000 less can still don't take us like I'll offer for $25,000 less. So demand really governs where prices go. So by understanding that price itself is when you're looking at it in real time, it's not representing necessarily the actual demand.

Roger Khoury (12m 9s):
It's just where it's at. Now. It is going to be moving up or down based on the continuing evolution as demand evolves, either as it expands, there's more demand or contracts. There's less demand. If demand is moving back and contracting price will eventually start to go back down. Price is expanding and you've got more demand. It's probably going to start pushing up, but a critical indication here, or I guess a note to make is that demand is always the first to move then price follows after. Does that make sense?

Phil (12m 43s):
Does it does. And it's also worthwhile mentioning here that when we're talking lagging indicators, that even if you're looking at fundamental analysis, for example, that's an incredibly long lagging indicator because all you can look at is a company's most recent report.

Roger Khoury (12m 59s):
That's exactly right. And this is where you see professional funds. You know, if people look at well, how many professional funds are there? I want to look up on Yahoo finance. And I found there was over 25,000 professionally managed funds. That's a smart money. Okay. Well, when you look at well, how, what percentage of them actually can even generate 10% a year just to kind of be ahead of inflation, less than 5% can even make 10% a year. Okay. Well that's wow.

Phil (13m 28s):
And they've been to all the best schools and the business colleges, and they've got the fancy degrees.

Roger Khoury (13m 33s):
Exactly. And it's mind boggling. And then now they've got the yachts they've got, well, where's all the customers' yachts. You know, what's going on with that? Well, what's interesting is when we think wash, it makes all the big money. People think that they know how to grow and make money. But if you step back and look at the industry, honestly, you realize the big money is being made on fees. They're collecting for managing money, whether they win or lose or break even that's number one. And there are a few funds who are like a Goldman Sachs, who has clients, well, guess what they do. They know the client's positions and they've publicly admitted that they trade against our clients by knowing what their clients are doing.

Roger Khoury (14m 14s):
So that's another way they might make money is by knowing, having an advantage, informational advantage, they know what their clients are doing, the trade against them. Okay. Well then that's not, that's not an honest way of making money. So how does the individual get to make money?

Phil (14m 28s):
Yep. That's manipulating demand. Presumably.

Roger Khoury (14m 30s):
Absolutely. Is it absolutely is. The manipulations are a rampant and actually brokers themselves. When you're a client, most people don't read the risk disclosure. Phil, if you read your risk disclosure, it actually says right there, we'll often take the opposite position from your position. So we'll wait a second. If they're telling me they're going to trade against me right in the contract, what does that say about their faith in me? What does it say about their faith in the education that they're giving me an education that I've gotten in the industry? Well, turns out statistically, most brokers have this understanding that 90% of their clients will lose 90% of their account balance within 90 days. That's kind of a little phrase there.

Roger Khoury (15m 12s):
Yeah. Isn't that crazy. And statistically, I think there was a study that was done and they showed that 90, I think it was 93 or 96 or 97%. Some crazy percentage of accounts never make money. So you wonder, well, wait a second. Well, but how are these brokers staying in business? Well, because people can't stand losing. And a lot of people who have money in a brokerage account, Johnny have some success in life and it's like, they can't accept that they've worked hard, succeed in whatever they put their mind to, but this thing shouldn't be this difficult. And yet I can't seem to make that work. So what do they do? They replenish that account. So though they're losing money, they get back money. They're putting more money behind it to keep going.

Roger Khoury (15m 53s):
Cause they have to crack this code. Right. What do you think kept me in the market for 14 years trying to figure this thing out? Right? What funded my path, my business, my primary income. Right? So this is a fact and a truth that people have to really come to terms with. There's a lot of great hype out there about what you can make and hear all these great stories of, you know, I turned down a thousand million dollars. Okay. Well, great. But is there any consistency? Is there any repeatability or are they just one hit wonders? So I think one of the key things people also look for is, okay, success is one thing, but is there repeatability? Do I see consistencies or something congruent? You know, because if there is then that's the first sign of, okay, maybe there's something solid here.

Roger Khoury (16m 35s):
The next thing is I look at well, other people complaining about this thing that have actually been involved in it. That's a great way to know. Well, what is people's experience? Who've actually invested in this thing.

Phil (16m 45s):
You're talking about people who have organizations, businesses who, who are offering education and ways of making, making money in the market.

Roger Khoury (16m 52s):
Yeah, exactly. But when people are looking to do something and they want to educate themselves, so these are some things they want to look at to be able to know with confidence. Am I getting an education that's actually going to help me? Or is it going to just sound good and feel good? But somehow I'm going to have this haphazard experience where I kind of feel like I'm getting something, but then I, you know, you make a little bit, you give it back, you make a little bit, you have a back, you know, it's a keeps you, so you have a carrot at the end of the stick. It's always kind of keeping you there virtually moving forward, but you're never really moving forward. You're kind of standing still, right? Because progress is a growing account, not an account that makes money and then you give it back. And so the consistency is critical without consistency. You've gotten nothing. Right.

Phil (17m 32s):
Let's move back then. About the mind shift, your mindset change that brought you back to not losing money, as opposed to trying to catch every wave, being the big kahuna of investing.

Roger Khoury (17m 44s):
Yeah. Well, you know, what happened was when I realized that it set me up and I ended up creating a process that took into account all of the eight factors of demand, basically. So if you think about it, you've got fundamentals, just the traditional Graham Dodd Warren buffet style forces. Okay.

Phil (18m 3s):
Yeah. They what's in the company's reports about revenue balance and so forth.

Roger Khoury (18m 8s):
Exactly. You've got a geopolitical forces that include central bank, macroeconomic effects, political, you know, tweets. And you know, you've got volatility and the different phase shifts you have of course market sentiment. And then you have liquidity pools and, and that includes volume order flow, trade flow. That includes smart money. And believe it or not, there's like dark pools that are involved in that.

Phil (18m 34s):
We've heard about this. It's incredible to believe that how much is going through a dark pools of money.

Roger Khoury (18m 39s):
Wow. It's wow. Now there's something called prime liquidity pools. Now what's a prime, it's a prime area on a price chart where you see that there's a certain level of price. You see kind of what I call squishiness. There's a squishy area where a market can be manipulated with certain financial weight, a big enough order and who understands and who knows what kind or what size of an order can that pool hold while a broker does? Cause they see the order flow and they understand order flow in the market, right? Or a market maker. You know, people who make markets, you know, who are in charge of being in the middle between buyers and sellers.

Roger Khoury (19m 20s):
You know? So what happens is think, and see a level where price seems to be holding or the general public says, oh, it seems like every time the market goes from 100 to 1 0 2 and comes back to 100, people seem to start to buy back at a hundred. Well, I'm willing to buy at a hundred and I'll just kind of give myself a little safety net. And I'll just say, you know, what, if it fails and it goes to 99, I'll get out and I'll exit. I don't want take any larger loss. So they put there kind of a, an order to say, well, I'll exit. If I'm wrong. If it goes below a hundred, if it hits on the now I'll exit. Now they only go in at a hundred and, and put that little stop loss in because they think that the market's gonna go back to 1 0 2 or 1 0 3 or one to four or whatever.

Roger Khoury (19m 60s):
Well, what happens is they, they get in and they get it for a hundred and all of a sudden the market goes down. It goes to 98.5, it's their stop. And then it goes up to one or three, one to four, one to five, like what, that's, where they feel personally gone after. Right. Okay.

Phil (20m 15s):
I have heard about this before Roger, where somehow the market knows where the stop losses are and it'll just go fishing for those stop losses.

Roger Khoury (20m 22s):
Yes. And actually when you have brokers, they see their orders from their clients coming in. It's easy for them to realize, oh, here's the majority of where the stops are. Right. So they can, they can stop hunt. You literally, they can hunt your stops. And why would they do that? Let's pretend you and me are in the market. I'm the broker, you're the client. You were the one who put your stop loss at 99. And I see 150 other that are doing the same thing. And I see that the prime liquidity pool, like the rubber band it's elastic. I can see that I can push it down to 97, 5 98. But then once it hits that there's going to be a string of orders there that are going to cause the market to balloon back up very quickly.

Roger Khoury (21m 4s):
Right. That'll all gonna overwhelm the market. It can't go any further. Well then I'll go in and put my order at 98. Well, for me to get that filled, right? Remember you're selling your position, right? Yep.

Phil (21m 16s):
And they're buying,

Roger Khoury (21m 17s):
So I'm buying, I'm taking the opposite position from you. So I'm taking that order. Guess what? I've stopped you out. I've gotten a better price average. So instead of me making money from 99 to 103, no, why don't I make it from 98 to 103, right? Dollar more now incrementally you do that repeatedly. That adds up pretty quickly for a broker, for a market maker. Anyone who can do that. So understanding that there's a prime pool of liquidity and then being able to identify where it is, is critical to eliminate two things, being manipulated in the market, stop hunted spite website out. Okay. And guess what? It eliminates the uncertainty that comes from that.

Roger Khoury (22m 1s):
Now we've eliminated uncertainty and being manipulated. Guess what? You've automatically done. You've just eliminated inconsistency. You now have guaranteed yourself, a very consistent and stable experience that's sustainable for as long as you wanna be involved in the market. There's no version 2.0, that's a principle. It's as constant as gravity, right? So those are important factors to take into account along with the imbalances that we see in supply and demand, and then last but not least technical analysis, right? Any of those little squiggly lines on the, on a price chart or the ideas of like Fibonacci again, Elliott wave things that people can look up and see, oh, this is exciting.

Roger Khoury (22m 45s):
All which by the way are subjective. You can line up 10 Elliott wave theorists, and they're going to give you 10 different interpretations of what they see, but we have to have something objective where you and I and 10 other people can look at the same thing. We all agree. Yup. That's this like if you and I decided to take a, an RV bus and we got 10 of our friends together and we decided we're going to take a 250 mile road trip. Well, if we all sat in front and looked at the gas tank and says, oh, your field get shows a quarter of a tank of gas. All 10 of us are going to agree that a quarter of tank of gas will not get us down into a 250 mile road trip. We're going to have to stop and refuel. Well, that's telling us, that's giving us guidance as to what actions we have to take.

Roger Khoury (23m 25s):
That is totally objective and not subject to anyone's interpretation. And unless you have that kind of clarity, you're going to make mistakes. Does that make sense?

Phil (23m 35s):
It does. Yeah. Well, to have consistency of performance, to have a methodology, to, to be able to continue doing the same thing so that you're not, you're not being forced by psychological circumstances to panic and do something that you shouldn't be doing.

Roger Khoury (23m 50s):
That's exactly right now you brought something up very important. Trade psychology is often talked about it's necessary when you are approaching the market, the way everyone approaches it in the way that I did for the first 14 years doing what everyone was teaching me to do. Well, why do we need trade psychology? Because we're constantly living with uncertainty. There's an unknown. Well, what drives fear and greed, fear and greed are destructive forces because they make us rationalize or justify behaviors that don't serve us. Well. What drives fear and greed is the unknown it's uncertainty. Well, when we eliminate the uncertainty, we eliminate the unknown. Guess what? We've just eliminated fear and greed.

Roger Khoury (24m 32s):
What happens when you can come to the market no longer in fear, no longer needing to be greedy because you have objective information tells you here's what you're dealing with. So you don't have to guess and hope, you know what to expect with no less than an 80 to 90% level of analysis accuracy. Well, now you've got a level of control over both your outcomes in terms of your performance, but you know, also have a level of control over your experience. You're not stressed and wrestling and you don't have to rely on trade psychology because you're not dealing with the unknowns that trade psychology helps you with that mental fortitude, all that stuff becomes unnecessary, right?

Roger Khoury (25m 13s):
It's helpful. But really not necessarily like for instance, it's hard to be patient when I don't know what to expect, but when I know what to expect, I can clearly see, oh no, I need to be patient. If I see a storm coming, if you and I forecast a storm, that doesn't mean you and I should be going out and running our errands in the middle of a storm. We have to kind of hold on. So you know what? No, no, no. That's kind of, that's dangerous weather. I don't want to go in there a hydroplane and have an accident. I'll wait until the storm passes. Then I'll go run my errands. That's easy. It's not hard to be patient for that. I know I've got objective data. See, it changes everything. When you have objective clarity, I call the four CS clarity, consistency control, produces confidence.

Roger Khoury (25m 54s):
It's like a stool for like a stool. You need that. That's your foundation. And so it's really important for people to seek that kind of a very sober approach to the market, right? Otherwise we're going to be under pressure. Guess what happens when we're under pressure? Now you know how to drive. But when you're running late to an important appointment, you drive your car a little bit differently than you do if you're arriving early, right. You're more aggressive.

Phil (26m 19s):
Not that it makes any difference to when you finally get there, that's it, right? Yeah. I've just realized that very recently, a long time coming,

Roger Khoury (26m 27s):
It's not worth it often, isn't it? But the idea is something, you know, that you've done all your life, your adult life suddenly you're in a mindset where you're rationalizing behaviors that are actually working against you. And this is so critical to understand and respect the frailty of our human emotions, that we should have the wisdom to know in the markets. I cannot afford to approach the market with any source of pressure. If I do, then I've got problems. If someone's coming to them and this is really important.

Phil (26m 59s):
No, I was going to ask about this in the market forecasting academy, that it's referral only and invitation only. And you do mention that you do see people coming along with a sense of desperation. And you realize that that is not the mindset with which you approach markets like this.

Roger Khoury (27m 16s):

Phil (27m 17s):
Correct. And whether they're using your methodology or anyone else's methodology, that is an important lesson, is that is not the way to approach the stock market.

Roger Khoury (27m 25s):
It really is a destructive force. I had a gentleman come to me. He had a stable life, but he had a situation in which he had inherited some money and he was scammed and he was really just, he needed to save face. And it was kind of really, he needed to kind of, you need to make that right. And I said, listen, I don't care how much you're willing to pay me. I know you're willing to do whatever it takes, you know, but I'm telling you unless you're outside of the situation and circumstances, pressure-filled you shouldn't be looking at the markets, do real estate, do something else because the markets with the money in the easy, you know, press a button you're charged, you cannot see straight. What happens is it's amazing. You'll see grown, mature, successful individuals, men and women included.

Roger Khoury (28m 10s):
They all of a sudden turn into a 16 year old who just got their driver's license and their parents got them a brand new Lamborghini. Does that combination sound like it's going to end? Well, probably not

Phil (28m 21s):
With a bottle of whiskey in the passenger seat

Roger Khoury (28m 23s):
And of all Louis that's right. So it really, we have to respect the fact that this really is something that our human nature is just prone to. So whenever I see someone who is coming with very little capital and they want to try to get rich quick, it's really important to come to the market prepared, knowing that I don't need the market. I don't need to do this. I want to do this. It's an enhancement. So I don't have that pressure. And I want to come with capital so that, you know, basically if I'm making some, some gain it's meaningful and it's motivating, encouraging, because if it's not, if it's piddly little pennies and dollars, guess what that's gonna do. That's gonna make me feel like, ah, I need to risk more and then they'll end up wiping that account.

Roger Khoury (29m 5s):
So it's just, there's a balance to this. And sometimes I'll spend, would you believe me if I told you Phil, that there are times where in 20 minutes, I figured out this person is not a good fit. And I have to tell them, not only I can't accept you, but you shouldn't be looking to trade anywhere in the market. You should be looking at something else like real estate or something else, internet marketing, I don't care. And then I'll spend two or three hours convincing them why for my own conscience so that I know that they're not going outside of me and willing to give their money to somebody who just says, thank you. Good luck. And then there were soft six months, 12 months from now, because most people will come to me. They're married, they've got kids really can't afford to do that to themselves. And it just, it breaks my heart to hear that and see that. So I do what I can and that's why I enjoy doing what we're doing like together right now is just kind of give people an honest, realistic perspective on what it really takes to succeed in the market pressure.

Roger Khoury (29m 52s):
It can not be part of your experience.

Phil (29m 54s):
So you started working out around methodology and people came to you originally, you didn't mean to start the account, right? It kind of, it felt to you to try and teach people, tell us about that process.

Roger Khoury (30m 8s):
Well, so it was funny enough. I was volunteering a lot of time in the middle of the week at a local church. And then after about, I don't think it was like two and a half months or so. One of the ladies came versus, you know, the girls and I were talking, I mean, please don't take this the wrong way,

Phil (30m 22s):
Like a sewing circle. Isn't it. Everyone wants to talk about everyone else.

Roger Khoury (30m 27s):
It's so true. But she says, I got to ask you, how is it that you're so free and available? And you're coming in and helping us old ladies out, you know, in the middle of the week when everyone else was working, you know, and we love having you. We love your help, but I mean, don't you work like, well, of course just, you know, it's what are you doing? I told her. And she said, well, isn't that risky and galleys of, well, I actually developed a whole approach. It's actually more conservative than real estate. It gives me a lot more control than it actually is a very part-time effort. So I've got an abundance of time and you know, so I got to fill it somehow with something I enjoy. And she's like, wow. So then I think it was another two months after that summer came and her son graduated high school. She said, can I talk to you? And can I ask you a question? Sure.

Roger Khoury (31m 7s):
She says, my son just graduated. Would you be willing to teach him your method? And he has an interest in finance and I don't want him blowing his summer on, on partying and having, going out with his friends and wanting to be productive. I said, sure, I'd love to. And that's how it started. And the joy that I got out of that, and the results that I saw, and then others will say, wow, would you be willing to teach me? And I said, sure. And it started developing. I thought, wow. And then one person would tell another and cause you know, people would see, wow, what are you doing? How are you doing that? What's going on? What's changed. Oh, you know, Roger, you not, I'll let you talk to Roger. And that's how that kind of snowballed now for me, when I started seeing more and more, I decided, wow, this is really enjoyable. And listen to people going to ask, well, what's in it for you. If you figured it out, why are you doing this?

Roger Khoury (31m 48s):
Why would you need to teach it's for me, it's not like extra work. It's actually a fun way to, to be productive. Why wouldn't I want to leverage my success. There's a value to helping someone start and come right out of the gate, successful at avoiding all the pitfalls and failures and losing and coming out and succeeding and building their account growing right out of the gate. So people were willing to say, Hey, look, if you can help me avoid making a mistake, I want to pay for that, you know, honorable. So just, just help me. And it's like, okay, well I started to take it more seriously, made a formal effort to create a course and training. And I took a lot of pride into it and I've enjoyed it. And it's been in my, my clients ended up becoming very close friends. Some are like family to me and I'm very selective.

Roger Khoury (32m 29s):
So like I'm very, hands-on I don't have a representative that I actually like to talk and meet with the person that's my life's work. One of the criteria is if I don't feel good about the person coming into my own home, I probably not going to take them as a client. So that's, you know, but I really believe in the mentoring, the training, the hands-on, but the most important part of that is the accountability. People naturally drift on their own when they don't have a sense of accountability. And it's so much easier for me to just keep this and make it a home study course. And I can make a lot of money from my motivation was just money. Right? Thank God. I'm not in that.

Phil (33m 6s):
And then just like people to their own devices once they've done the course,

Roger Khoury (33m 9s):
Because I could sell thousands. Do you know, in 10 years in my private group supported community 10 years, this is of all time, not current people, but of all time I have right route currently like 178 people. So that should tell you, I'm not out here, peddling this to the masses and I want to help people, but it's got to be the right fit and it's gotta make sense. You know, I don't want to exclude anyone, but I don't want to be exploited. So it's one of those things where it's just, and I take pride in this and I'm really enjoying this. That's how I like to fill my time up. And I teach them, don't come to the markets, wanting to become a trader that's wrong. You want to come and use the act of trading as a springboard for a short period of time through the consistency to compound and grow an account where the abundance of that account, eventually your trading income can replace your primary income.

Roger Khoury (33m 58s):
But what I would do is why not work until if that was a part-time effort that replaced a full-time income, why not continue that for a little longer and make it so that your abundance of that capital can be invested in passive yielding income investments or your passive income. Now replaces your need to even trade. Then you don't ever need to trade. You don't have to work if you don't want to. And now when you trade it's because you want to, not because you have to

Phil (34m 26s):
Be oppressive to do so now,

Roger Khoury (34m 27s):
Depending on what a person starts with because of the consistency, you're not getting it back a bunch of money. You're mostly, you know, keeping what you have that can grow in 2, 3, 4, 5 years, seven years, again, depending on what someone's starting out with. But that's, that's a realistic and honest approach. And I really am a big advocate of that. And I teach that philosophy to my clients. I want them not to come to grind like people think, are you, you know, did you catch that move? I don't trade moves. I don't really care. I'm not anxious about the market. You know, and I teach them no more than 10 to 15 hours a week. Even if you go full time, 15 hours a week really is plenty. If you go beyond that, you'll start to work against yourself. You get tired, you become, you know, zombie, like it's not good.

Roger Khoury (35m 8s):
You know, it's a mental activity. You know, the mind will only absorb what the, but we'll endure.

Phil (35m 15s):
Tell me about that. Sitting in front of the computer all day.

Roger Khoury (35m 18s):
That's right. You don't want to do that. It's really counterproductive. And a lot of successes, honestly, the logical thing is people want to come to the market to make money. So the logical conclusion of that is I want to look for opportunities to make money, but that's why they're losing and having inconsistency because they're blindsided by all the risk. But if we say no, instead let me look for opportunities that are not likely to lose money. Suddenly everything looks different from that perspective.

Phil (35m 41s):
If listeners want to find any more information about market forecasting academy, where should they head?

Roger Khoury (35m 46s):
Very simple marketforecasting

Phil (35m 50s):
I had an email as well from you about mentioning the request training URL as well.

Roger Khoury (35m 54s):
Yeah. If you put that link in the notes there it's marketforecasting and it is request dash training. So marketforecasting forward slash request dash or hyphen training. And they'll get a very special educational primer on demand imbalance arbitrage, which is the approach that I have where people can have consistently low risk, high quality, high probability opportunities. So they're avoiding these hit or miss experiences in the, in the gambling on outcomes. So they'll learn all about that there.

Phil (36m 32s):
Roger Khoury. Thank you very much for joining me today,

Roger Khoury (36m 34s):
Bill. Thank you so much for having me. That was fun.

Stocks for Beginners is for information and educational purposes only. It isn’t financial advice, and you shouldn’t buy or sell any investments based on what you’ve heard here. Any opinion or commentary is the view of the speaker only not Stocks for Beginners. This podcast doesn’t replace professional advice regarding your personal financial needs, circumstances or current situation.